Seismic vulnerability assessment of minor Italian urban centres: development of urban fragility curves

Abstract This paper presents a novel hybrid-based methodology devoted to develop urban fragility curves and damage probability matrices predict likelihood seismic scenarios for small medium Italian centres, considering URM buildings only. The concept of curve consists single mean-representative the an entire area accounting combinations building classes their percentage, then they differ from those typological. has been developed with reference Rocca di Mezzo, centre located in central Apennine area, Italy. Based on CarTiS inventory, have firstly recognized curves, representative at Ultimate Limit State, developed. To low high-intensity earthquakes, approach define multi-damage also presented. this aim, scale suffered by defined converting final outcomes AeDES form (used Italy post-earthquake surveys) levels provided European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98). Data coming compared actual scenario recorded Mezzo after 2009 L’Aquila’s earthquake, terms both peak-ground acceleration Mecalli-Cancani-Sieberg scale. achieved results showed good accordance between theoretical predictions scenarios, coherent occurred other historical centres hit severe earthquakes over years. Thus, can provide first important indicator support development emergently plans identify priority interventions such areas particularly vulnerable respect others.